Villa return to Villa Park on Thursday night trailing 1-0 from the first leg, with momentum against them after three straight defeats in all competitions. Once considered favourites to win the tournament at the start of the season, Emery now sees the dynamic differently, with Forest holding both the advantage and stronger recent form.
"They have the advantage, so for me they are the favourites," Emery said, effectively casting his own side as underdogs heading into the decisive encounter.
The Spaniard, who has won the Europa League four times, has sought to ease the pressure around the occasion by stressing that Villa's progress this season should not be defined solely by whether they lift the trophy.
"To achieve the semi-final is a huge achievement," he said. "Winning a trophy is very difficult - very, very difficult. It's not a defeat if we are not achieving a trophy."
Villa's campaign has been part of a broader upward trajectory under Emery, following a Conference League semi-final appearance in 2023/24 and a run to the Champions League quarter-finals last season. He maintains that the club's development remains on track regardless of Thursday's outcome.
"We are improving - the club, the players, and myself as well," he said. "This is not the last opportunity for us. We will have more chances in the present and in the future."
Recent results, however, have complicated their immediate ambitions. Defeats either side of the first leg - including a heavily rotated performance against Tottenham - have raised questions, though Emery pointed to injuries and workload management as key factors.
Midfielder Amadou Onana will miss the second leg after sustaining a calf injury, while John McGinn is expected to return after overcoming hamstring tightness. Emery admitted that frequent changes have affected rhythm but insisted they were necessary to protect players.
"It is always about getting the right balance," he said. "Sometimes we achieve it, sometimes we don't - that's football."
Forest, unbeaten in 10 matches in all competitions, arrive with confidence and a slender lead to defend. The tie also pits together two former European champions, with Forest winning back-to-back titles in 1979 and 1980, and Villa lifting the European Cup in 1982.
For Emery, though, the focus remains on perspective as much as performance.
"When I spoke before the first leg, we had 25 percent chance to win the trophy. Now it is maybe less because we are losing," he said. "We have 50% or maybe less to reach the final. Only one team wins - this is football."
Despite the challenge, Emery insists Villa should relish the occasion as they look to extend their European run.
"I am excited, 100 percent. I am so motivated," he said. "To be here now, playing a semi-final at home, is something fantastic."
